Seasonal Climate Forecasting: Who Can Use It And How Should It Be Disseminated?
Recent technical progress in seasonal climate forecasting, particularly related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, has sparked interest from various users such as large-scale farmers, utilities, and insurance industries. However, there is a gap between the information needed by small-scale farmers and what meteorological services provide.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: |
ODI |
| Authors: | Roger Blench |
| Time horizon: | 1999 |
| Geographic focus: | Southern Africa, Global |
Methods
The research method involved analyzing recent field studies in southern Africa to understand the impact of seasonal forecasts on small-scale farmers. It also examined the technical challenges in transforming the output of General Circulation Models (GCMs) into practical seasonal forecasts.
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Key Insights
The research discusses the importance of seasonal climate forecasting, its value to different users, and the challenges in disseminating probabilistic forecasts effectively. It highlights the need to integrate climate forecasts with other aspects of infrastructure and input supply to enhance their usefulness to small-scale farmers.
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Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 1990s time horizon | 1999 time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | Southern Africa geographic scope | climate | climate modeling | disaster preparedness strategies | economic value | el niño southern oscillation | environment | farmers | food | food security | infrastructure integration | meteorological services | probabilistic forecasts | seasonal climate forecasting | seasonal climate forecasts | small-scale farmers | user profiles