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Simulating the Evolution of Global Democracy Levels
This paper presents a model predicting the evolution of global democracy, showing a tendency towards full democracy or autocracy, with weak diffusion effects and less dramatic changes than historically observed.
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| Quick Facts | |
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| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: |
centre for the study of civil war |
| Authors: | Håvard Hegre, Joachim Carlsen |
| Geographic focus: | Global |
Methods
The research method involves a multivariate multinomial logit model to simulate the evolution of political systems in countries, considering various factors like institutional stability, average income, and diffusion through neighboring countries. The model's predictions are then compared to historical data.
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Key Insights
The research introduces a multinomial logit model to simulate changes in global democracy levels, considering institutional stability, income, diffusion, and instability of new regimes. The simulations suggest a natural gravitation towards full democracy or autocracy, with diffusion effects being less influential than other factors. Historical democratization waves are not fully captured by the model, indicating that other unmodeled factors play significant roles in large-scale democratic shifts. The study also examines the potential impact of democratic changes in Iraq on its region, finding minimal diffusion effects.
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Additional Viewpoints
Categories: english_publication_language | global_geographic_scope | autocracy | democracy | diffusion | historical_data | income | instability | intervention | logit_model | political_systems | simulation
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