South African Futures 2030: How Bafana Bafana Made Madiba Magic
This paper presents three scenarios for South Africa up to 2030: 'Bafana Bafana', 'A Nation Divided' and 'Mandela Magic', exploring the impact of policy and leadership choices on the nation's future.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | Institute for Security Studies |
| Authors: | Jakkie Cilliers |
| Time horizon: | 2030 |
| Geographic focus: | South Africa |
Methods
The research method used in this report involves scenario planning based on the International Futures forecasting system (IFs), which models relationships across various global systems for 186 countries to generate forecasts up to 2100. The scenarios are constructed by adjusting parameters in the IFs model to reflect different policy and leadership choices in South Africa.
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Key Insights
The report examines South Africa's potential futures through three scenarios: 'Bafana Bafana', a continuation of the status quo with moderate growth; 'Mandela Magic', a vision of clear economic and developmental progress; and 'Nation Divided', where political instability leads to populist policies and economic decline. The study emphasizes the significance of choices made by South Africans, with the economy potentially growing 23% larger in 'Mandela Magic' compared to 'Bafana Bafana'. The paper concludes with strategic interventions to achieve the most prosperous pathway.
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Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | English publication language | South Africa geographic scope | economic growth | education | employment | energy | foreign policy | governance | healthcare | inequality | infrastructure | investment