Speculation and price volatility in the coffee market
This study examines the determinants of green coffee price volatility in spot, futures, and physical markets, revealing that speculation in futures markets decreases volatility across all three.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | |
| Authors: | Claudio Mora-garcía, Nanno Mulder, Aliaga Lordemann, Javier Aliaga Lordemann |
| Geographic focus: | Global |
| Page count: | 36 páginas. |
Methods
The research method employed a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, incorporating weekly data on prices, state, economic, and market structure variables to analyze the conditional volatility of green coffee prices.
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Key Insights
The research investigates the factors influencing the volatility of green coffee prices in spot, futures, and physical markets. Using a GARCH model with weekly data on prices and variables related to state, economy, and market structure, the study finds that speculation in futures markets reduces price volatility. The analysis includes the role of speculators, hedgers, and small traders, as well as macroeconomic indicators. The findings suggest that speculation has a stabilizing effect on coffee prices, which is significant for producers who rely on coffee farming for their livelihoods.
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Additional Viewpoints
Categories: English publication language | Global geographic scope | coffee market | commodity trading | futures markets | garch model | macroeconomic indicators | market structure | physical markets | price volatility | speculation | spot prices