The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy
The report explores three strategies for U.S. AI export policy: control, diffusion, and leverage, each with distinct implications for national security and economic interests. It emphasizes the strategic importance of AI and the need for balanced policy decisions amid technological and geopolitical uncertainties.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source source 2 |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| Authors: | Sam Winter-levy |
| Time horizon: | 2024 |
| Geographic focus: | United_States, Saudi_Arabia, United_Arab_Emirates, China, India, Abu_Dhabi, Bangalore, Riyadh |
| Page count: | 0 |
Methods
The research employs qualitative analysis, drawing on interviews with private companies, academics, policymakers, and foreign government officials. It synthesizes perspectives from various stakeholders to outline three strategic approaches to U.S. AI exports.
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Key Insights
The report examines the U.S. strategy for exporting AI technologies, presenting three competing visions: control, diffusion, and leverage. The control strategy aims to limit AI exports to a select group of allies to prevent misuse and maintain technological superiority. The diffusion strategy advocates for widespread AI technology dissemination to enhance U.S. influence and competitiveness. The leverage strategy suggests using AI exports as a bargaining tool for geopolitical and technological concessions. The report highlights the strategic importance of AI, the potential risks of proliferation, and the need for balanced policy decisions. It discusses the Biden administration's inclination towards a leverage strategy and anticipates continued debate under the Trump administration. The report underscores the complexity of AI diplomacy and trade, emphasizing the need for U.S. policymakers to reconcile national security and economic interests amid technological and geopolitical uncertainties.
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Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2020s time horizon | 2024 time horizon | Abu Dhabi geographic scope | Bangalore geographic scope | China geographic scope | English publication language | India geographic scope | Riyadh geographic scope | Saudi Arabia geographic scope | United Arab Emirates geographic scope | United States geographic scope | ai export strategy | ai governance | ai safety | ai technology diffusion | economic strategy | export controls | geopolitical leverage | national security | u.s. foreign policy