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The Future of Conflict in an Age of Climate Extremes
Environmental damage caused by climate change will exert pressure on key resources, land use, and human security. These challenges could amplify or directly cause conflict in the future. Global Governance Futures (GGF) identifies key trends and builds scenarios based on this premise.
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | Global Governance Futures |
| Publication date: | August 1, 2021 |
| Authors: | GGF 2035 Global Futures of Climate-Related Conflict Working Group; Senior Fellow: Thomas Hale; Fellows: Zach Beecher, Sheila Carina, Vivien Croes, Tori Zheng Cui, Varun Hallikeri, Tomonobu Kumahira, “‹Kathrin Ludwig, Michelle Toxopeüs, Natalie Unterstell; Co-authors: Joel Sandhu and Coco Aglibut |
| Time horizon: | 2030 - 2035 |
| Geographic focus: | global |
| Page count: | 35 |
Methods
Methods described in detail here
Key uncertainties were derived from expert interviews. These uncertainties were split into two scenarios: a 'pleasant' outcome and an 'unpleasant' outcome.
Scenarios include a description of key uncertainty outcomes, a history of the future timeline, factors driving the scenario, and implications.
Key Insights
Drivers mentioned include:
- Emergence of Geo-engineering Technology
- Financial resilience of states and markets
- Regional Dynamics
- Consumption and Production patterns
- Food Security
- Climate related migration/displacement
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2021_publication_year | 2030_time_horizon | 2030s_time_horizon | 2035_time_horizon | english_publication_language | climate_change | conflict | geopolitics | global_geographic_scope | new_regionalism drivers_methodology, scenario_methodology, expert_interview_methodology, backcasting_methodology