The future of global value chains

The research examines the future of global value chains (GVCs), exploring whether they will continue to expand or face a new normal of stagnation or decline.

The research employs the OECD's METRO model, a static computable general equilibrium model that differentiates commodities by use, to simulate the impact of various factors on GVCs up to 2030.

• Scenarios are developed

The report investigates the growth of GVCs as drivers of globalization, considering factors that could either promote their expansion or signal a shift towards a new normal with reduced GVC activity. It assesses the potential impacts of these factors on global production and trade by 2030 through various scenarios.

Drivers mentioned include:

• Open trade and investment agreements
• Digitalisation and ICT: new communication technologies
• New (low-cost) producers in manufacturing
• Growing demand in emerging economies
• Development of services
• The role of Multinational Enterprises (MNEs)

Categories: 2017 publication year | 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | 2035 time horizon | English publication language | global geographic scope | global value chains | information technologies | information technology | logistics | supply chain | supply chains | sustainability