The Future of Housing: Policy Scenarios

This report examines scenarios for housing policy and their potential impact on residential investment, real house prices, and housing affordability up to 2050, considering the influence of housing policies, urban mobility, and environmental targets.

Excerpt from report:
“Will the strong upward trend of house prices continue and if this were so, what policy reforms could make housing affordable again? This paper sheds light on these issues by developing a simulation framework to provide a baseline and policy scenarios for residential investment, the housing stock and house prices until 2050.”

The research method involves creating a simulation framework based on demand and supply elasticities for housing markets, considering policy indicators like mortgage interest relief, land-use governance, and rent control. It uses data on population, disposable income, interest rates, and inflation from OECD's long-term projections to iterate the model and project future housing market trends.

Uses modeling and quantitative research to explore scenarios with the purpose of formulating policy solutions for the high cost of housing. Scenarios are different forecasts, based on applying different assumptions to the simulation model.

• Quantitative methods used
• Normative in nature
• Simulation and modeling

The research combines estimates of housing supply and prices with projections of population, income, and interest rates to create scenarios for residential investment and real house prices up to 2050. It suggests that without policy changes, housing affordability could worsen in many countries. Policy reforms in mortgage interest relief, land-use governance, and rent control could improve affordability. The study also explores the impact of online home-sharing platforms like Airbnb on housing markets and discusses the implications of urban mobility and decarbonization efforts on housing.

Drivers mentioned include:

• Population
• Income
• Land-Use Governance
• Tax Policy
• Rent Control
• Sharing Economy
• Urban Mobility 4.0
• Decarbonising Housing

Categories: 2020 publication year | 2040s time horizon | 2046 time horizon | 2050 time horizon | 2050s time horizon | English publication language | housing | housing affordability | hybrid developed world geographic scope | income | investment | population