The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture

This report projects the world economy up to 2050, accounting for labor, capital, energy, and technological progress.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research method involves constructing a three-factor production function including labor, capital, and energy, and two forms of technological progress. The model uses United Nations and International Labour Office labor projections, econometric estimations of capital accumulation, savings rates, the relationship between savings and investment rates, and technological progress. It also includes a Balassa-Samuelson effect to account for real exchange rate variations.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The report presents long-term economic projections for 128 countries until 2050, using a production function that includes labor, capital, and energy, and accounts for technological progress. It suggests significant growth for China and India, with major implications for global economic power distribution and demand for resources. The study also considers the impact of relative price changes on GDP, incorporating a Balassa-Samuelson effect for real exchange rate appreciation. The results should be considered tentative but provide a transparent and theoretically grounded benchmark for future studies on global economic dynamics.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: 2050 time horizon | 2050s time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | balassa-samuelson effect | capital | economic power | economy | energy | energy productivity | gdp growth | growth | growth scenarios | investment rates | labor | real exchange rates | savings rates | technological progress | tfp growth | world economy in 2050