Tipping Point: Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production - An Outline Review
This report outlines the near-term systemic implications of a peak in global oil production, suggesting a high probability of a fast and near-term collapse of our integrated and globalized civilization.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: |
the foundation for the economics of sustainability |
| Authors: | David Korowicz |
| Geographic focus: | Global |
Methods
The research method used in the report is a systemic analysis of the integrated globalized civilization, focusing on the dynamics of complex systems, critical transitions, and the implications of declining energy flows on economic and social structures.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The report argues that our civilization is structurally unstable to an energy withdrawal and is on the cusp of a fast and near-term collapse. It examines the relationship between energy flows, economic growth, and the complex structures of globalized civilization, suggesting that a decrease in energy flow through our civilization could have major systemic implications. The research explores the nature and evolution of this complex integrated globalized civilization, the thermodynamics of energy and economy, peak oil, and the limits of mitigation. It presents three indicative models of the economics of peak oil: linear decline, oscillating decline, and systemic collapse, with a focus on the latter as the most likely scenario. The report discusses integrated collapse mechanisms, including the decline in energy flows reducing global economic production, the collapse of the credit market, the fracturing of globalized supply-chains, the failure of critical infrastructure, food insecurity risks, and the likelihood of peak energy in general. The implications for climate change are also outlined, suggesting a major collapse in greenhouse gas emissions, though the relative ability to cope with the impacts of climate change will be much reduced. The report concludes that a managed 'de-growth' is impossible and that we are at the cusp of rapid and severely disruptive changes.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: English publication language | Global geographic scope | climate change | collapse | economy | energy | energy depletion | globalised civilisation | globalization | infrastructure | mitigation | mitigation limits | peak oil | supply-chains | thermodynamics