Transboundary Disaster Risk Assessment and Scenario Planning for Tropical Cyclones and Droughts in the ASEAN Region

This report examines the impacts of tropical cyclones and droughts in the ASEAN region, focusing on Cambodia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. It assesses the potential effects of climate change on these disasters and provides recommendations for enhancing disaster risk management in line with the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response Work Programme 2021-2025.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The study employed a combination of data analysis, climate modeling, and scenario planning to assess the risks associated with tropical cyclones and droughts in the ASEAN region. It used historical climate data and future climate change projection scenarios to predict the potential impacts of these disasters on Cambodia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. The research focused on the transboundary nature of these disasters and considered various climate models to estimate the frequency, intensity, and potential damages of future events. The methodology included hazard analysis, exposure assessment, impact modeling, and risk analysis to provide a comprehensive understanding of the disaster risks facing the region.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The study on Transboundary Disaster Risk Assessment and Scenario Planning for Tropical Cyclones and Droughts in the ASEAN Region assesses the impacts of these disasters on Cambodia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. It uses climate change projection scenarios to predict future risks and provides recommendations for improving disaster risk management. The research highlights the need for collaboration on transboundary disaster risk management in the ASEAN region and emphasizes the importance of considering climate change in disaster planning.

The study found that transboundary tropical cyclones could significantly damage residential houses in the future, with a projected sixty-percent increase in the number of houses damaged by 2050. The increased risk is mainly due to intensifying wind speeds from future tropical cyclones, with uneven impacts across the region. While the Philippines is most affected, Cambodia and Viet Nam are expected to experience the largest risk increase. Coastal provinces in Viet Nam will see particularly large increases in expected annual losses.

Drought events are also projected to become more frequent and severe due to climate variability influenced by climate change. The probability of drought is expected to increase by 60-80% in the future, with Cambodia likely to be hit hardest. The northern and central parts of Cambodia may experience a higher number of drought events, and the spatial extent of drought-hit areas could span multiple countries, creating transboundary effects among countries sharing water resources from the Mekong River.

The study also found that the vulnerabilities of people within the region have not been sufficiently accounted for in risk assessment and scenario planning. Sex, Age, and Disability Disaggregated (SADD) data has not been widely utilized in the analysis of risk exposure and vulnerability, restricting an inclusive lens in disaster risk assessment and analysis.

Based on these findings, the study makes recommendations for the ASEAN Member States to consider, aligning with the AADMER Work Programme 2021-2025. These include revising building codes to account for more intense tropical cyclones, increasing drought risks in crop insurance programs, integrating SADD data in risk assessments, considering transboundary risk scenarios in ASEAN response preparedness mechanisms, using hazard intensity parameters as triggers for pre-disaster anticipatory actions, and integrating transboundary hazard scenarios into recovery strategies.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: Cambodia geographic scope | English publication language | Philippines geographic scope | Viet Nam geographic scope | asean region | climate change | disaster management | droughts | policy recommendations | risk assessment | scenario planning | transboundary impact | tropical cyclones | vulnerability analysis