What if....? Scanning the horizon: 12 scenarios for 2021

This report examines the potential strategic impact of developments that could occur in 2021, with a focus on foreign and security policy aspects that may be overlooked. The scenarios are based on ongoing and recent events, and are designed to help decision-makers prepare for or avoid these possible future situations.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research method combines horizon-scanning to detect changes and constants in the environment, and scenario-building to create narrative stories that highlight relationships and trends not captured by quantitative data. This method allows for the incorporation of values, motivations, and behavior into the scenarios, generating emotion and overcoming denial.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research uses horizon-scanning and single scenario-building methods to create plausible events set in 2021, with strategic implications extending beyond that year. The scenarios cover potential conflicts, political developments, and crises, reflecting the expertise and imagination of the researchers. The aim is to alert decision-makers to significant developments while there is still time to act.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: 2021 | English publication language | air pollution | cyber warfare | economic downturn | energy consumption | environmental degradation | foreign affairs | foresight | global governance | health crisis | maritime security | military mobility | political instability | regions | security | sovereign debt crisis | strategic autonomy | strategic foresight | transnational challenges | us force redeployment