World trade: possible futures
This report explores four scenarios for the future of world trade by 2020.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | UK Government Office for Science |
| Publication date: | June 30, 2009 |
| Time horizon: | 2020 |
| Geographic focus: | Global |
| Page count: | 28 |
Methods
The research method involves scenario planning, a form of futures analysis that identifies key drivers of change and develops narratives to describe various plausible future outcomes. This method challenges current trend-based forecasting by considering radically different scenarios to test policy robustness and inspire strategic development.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The report presents four scenarios depicting how world trade could evolve by 2020, considering factors such as resource availability, global coordination, and the influence of emerging economies. It examines the impact of the financial crisis, energy costs, and climate change on trade patterns, and discusses the role of international institutions in shaping the future. The scenarios range from global innovation and cooperation to deglobalisation and fragmentation, each with distinct implications for trade, development, and global governance.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2009 publication year | 2020 time horizon | 2020s time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | climate change | emerging economies | energy costs | financial crisis | global governance | international institutions | policy development | resource availability | trade patterns | world trade