Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa: Prospects for 26 'more fragile' countries
This monograph provides a long-term forecast for 26 'more fragile' African countries using the International Futures forecasting system, indicating that ten countries may remain fragile into the mid-21st century, while others could improve by 2030 or 2050.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | Institute for Security Studies |
| Authors: | Timothy D Sisk, Jakkie Cilliers |
| Time horizon: | 2030 |
| Geographic focus: | Africa |
| Page count: | 124 pages |
Methods
The research method involved using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system to analyze historical data and generate long-term forecasts for 26 'more fragile' African countries. The method integrated various subsystems, including population, economic, and governance, to explore future trends and scenarios.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The monograph uses the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system to analyze 26 'more fragile' African countries, projecting their future based on governance, conflict, poverty, and inequality. Recommendations are made for long-term planning, conflict prevention, poverty reduction, and governance improvement.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | Africa geographic scope | English publication language | conflict | development | economic growth | education | exclusion | foreign affairs | fragility in africa | governance | inequality | infrastructure | politics | poverty | regions | research | security | violence | war