Compression or Expansion of Disability? Forecasting Future Disability Levels under Changing Patterns of Diseases

This report investigates future disability levels in the UK's aging population, considering the impact of disease patterns and medical advancements on the prevalence of disability requiring social care.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research utilized data from the Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS) to model the transition from disease to disability and mortality. It involved a trichotomous logistic regression model to estimate effects of diseases on disability onset and death, adjusting for sociodemographic variables. The simulation projected the future disabled population from 1991 to 2025, considering government mortality projections.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research explores how changing patterns of diseases might influence future disability levels among the UK's older population. Using data from the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study, the report models the effect of diseases on disability and examines scenarios ranging from no change in health trends to improving or worsening population health. It concludes that without significant changes in disease management, the number of older individuals with disabilities will rise substantially by 2025.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: 2025 time horizon | 2020s time horizon | English publication language | United Kingdom geographic scope | ageing population | aging population | arthritis | cohort differences. | coronary heart disease | disabilities | disability prevalence | disease management | disease patterns | health scenarios | long-term care | medical advancements | obesity risks | public good | public health interventions | social care | stroke