Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios
This report presents an intercomparison of climate model projections for 32 world regions based on new IPCC emissions scenarios, focusing on changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation between 1961-1990 and future periods centered on the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: |
|
| Authors: | Heikki Tuomenvirta, Kirsti Jylhä, Timothy R. Carter, Kimmo Ruosteenoja |
| Geographic focus: | Global |
Methods
The research method involved analyzing outputs from seven AOGCMs based on the SRES emissions scenarios A1FI, A2, B1, and B2. For scenarios not directly modeled, a pattern-scaling technique was used to extrapolate projections. The study focused on mean seasonal temperature and precipitation changes for three future periods relative to a 1961-1990 baseline, assessing the statistical significance of changes and uncertainties in the direction of change.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The report provides an intercomparison of recent climate model projections for 32 world regions, using the latest IPCC emissions scenarios. It details mean seasonal temperature and precipitation changes for three future periods centered on the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, relative to the 1961-1990 baseline. The study incorporates outputs from seven coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and applies a pattern-scaling technique to extrapolate projections for scenarios not directly modeled. The report evaluates the statistical significance of future changes and portrays uncertainties in the direction of change. This information is useful for selecting climate scenarios for impact and adaptation assessments, and the results are also available numerically from the IPCC Data Distribution Centre.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: English publication language | Global geographic scope | adaptation assessment | aerosols | aogcms | climate change | climate models | greenhouse gases | impact assessment | ipcc emissions | ipcc scenarios | pattern-scaling technique | precipitation change | statistical significance | temperature change | uncertainty