Groundswell 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration
Climate change is an increasingly potent driver of migration. This report, which builds on the 2018 Groundswell report, presents new regional analyses that reaffirm how climate-driven internal migration could escalate in the next three decades. Looking at slow-onset climate change impacts on water availability and crop productivity, plus sea-level rise, it highlights the urgency for action as livelihoods and human well-being are placed under increasing strain.
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/158b2f56-a4db-5a2d-93b9-0070068fa084/download |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | World Bank Group |
| Publication date: | 2018 |
| Authors: | Alex de Sherbinin, Bryan Jones, Elham Shabahat, Jacob Schewe, Jonas Bergmann, Kanta Kumari Rigaud, Kayly Ober, Nadege Desiree Yameogo, Nian Sadiq, Susana Adamo, Viviane Clement |
| Time horizon: | 2030 - 2050 |
| Geographic focus: | Sub-Saharan_Africa, East_Asia_and_the_Pacific, South_Asia, North_Africa, Latin_America, Eastern_Europe_and_Central_Asia, Morocco, Vietnam, Kyrgyz_Republic |
| Page count: | 362 |
Methods
The research method used in the report involves analyzing climate migration projections for Morocco, Vietnam, and the Kyrgyz Republic up to 2050 across three scenarios: pessimistic reference, more inclusive development, and more climate-friendly. The projections consider socio-economic, demographic characteristics, urbanization trends, climatic conditions, and natural systems to identify hotspots of climate in- and out-migration.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
Morocco, Vietnam, and the Kyrgyz Republic face distinct climate migration challenges by 2050. Morocco may see 1.9 million climate migrants, with hotspots in coastal cities and central foothills. Vietnam's Mekong Delta and Red River Delta are vulnerable, potentially affecting 3.1 million people. The Kyrgyz Republic's Ferghana Valley and areas around Bishkek could experience significant migration due to water scarcity and crop productivity changes. Adaptation strategies and inclusive development are crucial to mitigate impacts.
1. Internal climate migration is set to accelerate to 2050 across six regions, hitting the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest and threatening development gains.
2. Hotspots of internal climate in- and out-migration emerge as early as 2030 and grow and intensify by 2050, highlighting the need to integrate plausible migration scenarios in spatial development.
3. Early action both to cut global greenhouse gas emissions and to ensure inclusive and resilient development is essential, and can reduce the scale of internal climate migration by as much as 60–80 percent.
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2018 publication year | 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | 2050 time horizon | 2050s time horizon | East Asia and the Pacific geographic scope | Eastern Europe and Central Asia geographic scope | English publication language | Kyrgyz Republic geographic scope | Latin America geographic scope | Morocco geographic scope | North Africa geographic scope | South Asia geographic scope | Sub-Saharan Africa geographic scope | Vietnam geographic scope | adaptation strategies | agriculture | climate change impacts | climate migration | economic development | livelihood zones | population projections | sea-level rise | urbanization | water scarcity