Horizon Scanning-Metafore Towards a Shared Future-Base for the European Research Area

This report examines the transformation of Europe from a conflict-ridden continent to a region embracing its future, with the EU playing a crucial role in this change. It explores the potential for a shared European future-base, focusing on the importance of evidence-based policymaking and the challenges of dealing with the future in the absence of empirical data. The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies' experiences in foresight work are discussed, highlighting the development of a systematic future-base containing insights from global foresight studies. The paper concludes with an analysis of EU FP7-funded studies, comparing EU research priorities with findings from a future-base like exercise.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research method involved collecting a broad set of publicly available foresight studies on the future of the international security environment, published between 2011 and 2012. The studies were identified using search engines and academic databases, with specific criteria for inclusion, such as a focus on the future, security environment, and policy relevance. The selected studies were then manually and automatically coded using software programs like Dedoose and Leximancer. The coding process involved tagging relevant passages based on a single coding scheme, which included key developments, actors, regions, drivers, and domains. The results were consolidated and classified to generate a global visualization of the findings. The manual coding was complemented by automated text mining tools to identify key themes, concepts, and associations with the word 'security'.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research report discusses the evolution of Europe as a leader in strategic foresight, with the European Union (EU) at the forefront of this transformation. The EU's initiatives, such as 'Europe 2020', aim to guide European policy towards ambitious goals in employment, innovation, education, social inclusion, and climate/energy. The report emphasizes the role of foresight in the EU's research agenda, noting that the EU may fund more foresight work than any other actor globally. However, these efforts are often uncoordinated, with most research projects addressing the future independently. The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), a Dutch policy think tank, has been conducting foresight work for various customers and has started building a systematic 'future-base' with insights from global foresight studies. The paper introduces the idea and rationale behind a 'future-base', describes the method used by HCSS, and presents examples from foresight studies published in 2012 in the field of security. It concludes with an analysis of EU FP7-funded studies to show how EU research priorities could be compared to findings from a future-base like exercise.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: English publication language | Global geographic scope | europe | europe 2020 | european union | evidence-based approach | foresight work | future-base | governance | policy-making | research | research agenda | science | science and technology | security studies | strategic foresight