Looking to 2060: Long-term Growth Prospects for the World

This report projects global economic growth and imbalances to 2060, showing non-OECD countries outpacing OECD ones, with policy reforms and fiscal consolidation key to outcomes.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Quick Facts
Report location:	source
Language:	English
Publisher:	Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Authors:	Christine De La Maisonneuve, David Turner, Fabrice Murtin, Francesca Spinelli, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Guillaume Bousquet, Yvan Guillemette, Åsa Johansson
Time horizon:	2060
Geographic focus:	Global

Methods

The research method involved constructing a model to project growth and imbalances for OECD and major non-OECD economies over 50 years. The model considered demographic changes, fiscal adjustments, global imbalances, and structural policies. A baseline scenario was compared with variants assuming more ambitious policies.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Key Insights

The report presents a model projecting growth for OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years, comparing a baseline scenario with variants assuming deeper policy reforms. It finds that non-OECD growth will outpace OECD growth, but the gap will narrow. Major shifts in the world economy's composition are expected, with China and India's combined GDP surpassing that of the G7 and OECD. Without ambitious policy changes, global imbalances could undermine growth. However, bold fiscal and structural reforms can raise living standards and reduce disruption risks by mitigating global imbalances.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

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