MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy
This research integrates long-term issues into a new version of the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model MIRAGE, called MIRAGE-e, to analyze the world economy's path up to 2100.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales |
| Authors: | Jean Fouré, Maria Priscila Ramos, Lionel Fontagné |
| Time horizon: | 2100 |
| Geographic focus: | Global |
Methods
The research method involves a three-phase approach using the MIRAGE-e model, which is a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model integrated with the MaGE growth model. It estimates a three-factor macroeconomic growth model for individual countries, recovers sectoral detail with an energy-oriented CGE model, and compares baseline assumptions to alternative scenarios.
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Key Insights
The study presents a new version of the MIRAGE model, MIRAGE-e, which incorporates energy efficiency, prices, and agricultural productivity to project the global economy's trajectory until 2100. It interacts with the MaGE growth model, accounting for energy demand, technological progress, and demographic changes. The research assesses the impact of baseline assumptions on future economies, highlighting the shift towards services and skilled labor, and the unsustainable trajectory of CO2 emissions without mitigation policies.
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Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2100 time horizon | 2100s time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | capital accumulation | cge model | co2 emissions | competitiveness | demography | dynamic baseline | economy | energy | energy efficiency | environmental policy. | growth | growth model | macroeconomic growth model | technological progress