Mutahi Ngunyi's 7 point minimum scenarios for the 2013 elections – Presentation
The report analyzes voter demographics and coalition prospects for the 2013 Kenyan elections.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Authors: | Mutahi Ngunyi |
| Time horizon: | 2013 |
| Geographic focus: | Kenya |
Methods
The research method involves analyzing voter registration data and projecting election outcomes based on demographic voting patterns and coalition support.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The report presents an analysis of the 2013 Kenyan elections based on the voter register data from December 18th, 2012. It compares the potential votes for the Jubilee Coalition and the CORD Coalition, highlighting the significant lead of Jubilee in terms of voter support. The analysis suggests that Jubilee is likely to win the popular vote and has a higher chance of reaching the 50%+1 vote mark required for a first-round victory. It also discusses the minimum number of counties each coalition is likely to win, with Jubilee having more 'bankable' counties. The report considers 'known unknowns' such as the votes needed by each coalition to secure a win and 'unknown unknowns' like the death of an incumbent president or a dysfunctional cabinet, which could lead to military intervention.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2010s time horizon | 2013 time horizon | English publication language | Kenya geographic scope | coalition prospects | county wins | elections | electoral analysis | kenya | known unknowns | military intervention | political scenarios | popular vote | scenarios | unknown unknowns | voter demographics