No foresight, no food? Regional scenarios for Africa and South Asia

This report explores future scenarios for food security in East Africa under different governance and economic conditions.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research method involved developing narrative scenarios with regional stakeholders, quantifying these scenarios using global agricultural economic models (IMPACT and GLOBIOM), and applying them in strategic planning workshops for policy testing and development.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The report presents a foresight study on the future of food security in East Africa, considering the impacts of political and economic integration or fragmentation, and proactive or reactive governance. It outlines four scenarios—Industrious Ants, Herd of Zebra, Lone Leopards, Sleeping Lions—each with distinct implications for food security, environments, and livelihoods. The study uses a holistic approach, combining narrative scenarios with quantitative models to explore the effects of socio-economic and governance uncertainties on regional food systems up to 2030 and 2050. The scenarios are developed with regional stakeholders and are used to test policies, develop creative solutions, and build regional capacity for strategic planning under uncertainty. The report also discusses the use of these scenarios in strategic planning workshops with civil society and private sector actors to develop robust strategies for improved food security and livelihoods.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | East Africa geographic scope | English publication language | Global geographic scope | agricultural economics | capacity building | climate change | economic integration | farming patterns | food | food security | future scenarios | governance | land use | livelihoods | political integration | scenario development | strategic planning | sustainable food production