Regional climate model simulations of present-day and future climates of Southern Africa
This report evaluates regional climate model simulations to assess present-day and future climates of Southern Africa, identifying biases and predicting changes in temperature and precipitation.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: |
Hadley Centre Technical |
| Authors: | R.g. Jones, D. A. Hudson |
| Time horizon: | 2071 |
| Geographic focus: | Southern Africa, Africa |
Methods
The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3H) was run with a ~50 km resolution, forced by the high-resolution GCM HadAM3H. The model's present-day simulation (1961-1990) was evaluated against observed data, and a future climate change experiment was conducted for the period 2071-2100 using the A2 emissions scenario. The study involved comparing the RCM's ability to resolve finer-scale features against the driving GCM and assessing the impact of increased resolution on the simulation of climate features such as temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclones.
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Key Insights
The Hadley Centre's Regional Climate Model (HadRM3H) was used to simulate the current and future climate of Southern Africa, revealing an increase in surface air temperature by 3.7°C in summer and 4.0°C in winter by the 2080s. The model predicts a drying trend over much of the western subtropical subcontinent in summer, with equatorial regions becoming wetter due to increased rainfall intensity. The study highlights the model's ability to resolve finer-scale features like topography and tropical cyclones, which affect the region's climate. However, significant biases in summer precipitation and temperature were noted, attributed to both internal model physics and inherited errors from the driving global climate model (GCM).
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Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2070s time horizon | 2071 time horizon | Africa geographic scope | English publication language | Southern Africa geographic scope | biases evaluation | climate | climate change | climate modeling | emissions scenario | future climate | precipitation changes | present-day climate | regional climate model | temperature increase | topography | tropical cyclones