The Future of Global Poverty in a Multi-Speed World: New Estimates of Scale and Location, 2010–2030

This report examines the future of global poverty, projecting trends and locations from 2010 to 2030 using a new model called the GrIP (Growth, Inequality, and Poverty) model. It considers various scenarios based on different growth rates and changes in inequality, using both survey and national accounts means. The study finds that global poverty could significantly reduce by 2030, but this is highly dependent on economic growth and inequality trends. The location of poverty is also expected to shift, with sub-Saharan Africa likely to account for a larger share. The report highlights the importance of methodological choices and assumptions in poverty projections and their implications for international aid policy.

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The research method employed in the report involves the use of the GrIP model, which compares different input assumptions to project global poverty trends. The model incorporates various scenarios based on economic growth rates and changes in inequality, using both survey and national accounts means. It also considers the reclassification of countries into different income categories based on forecast GNI figures. The model covers a wide range of countries and allows for the estimation of national distributions using either survey means or national accounts means.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The report presents a comprehensive analysis of global poverty projections using the GrIP model, which allows for systematic comparisons of different input assumptions. The model explores the impact of economic growth, inequality trends, and methodological choices on the scale and location of future poverty. The study finds that global poverty could substantially decrease by 2030, with the potential for extreme poverty to be very low. However, this outcome is contingent on optimistic economic growth and favorable inequality trends. The research also reveals that changes in inequality could have a significant effect on poverty numbers, with the possibility of nearly a billion more people living in poverty under certain scenarios. The report suggests that while poverty in India and China may reduce dramatically, sub-Saharan Africa will likely see an increase in poverty levels. The findings underscore the importance of considering a range of outcomes and the inherent uncertainties in poverty forecasting when informing policy debates on the future of international aid.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | development | economic growth | economy | fragile states | income categories | inequality | methodology | national accounts | policy implications | poverty | projections | society (growth and development) | survey means