The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe
The global economy in 2030 is projected to grow steadily, allowing GDP to roughly double. Emerging economies will grow faster than developed ones, reducing income disparities. China will become the largest economy, overtaking the EU and US. The middle class will expand significantly, especially in Asia, while poverty will decline, mainly in India and sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change impacts are expected to be manageable by 2030, but major policy measures are needed to reduce emissions. Europe's transition involves dealing with an aging population, high unemployment, and government debt, with productivity at the core of competitiveness and growth.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | Centre for European Policies Studies, European Strategy and Policy Analysis System |
| Authors: | Arnaud Fougeyrollas, Arno Behrens, Carlo Sessa, Christian Egenhofer, Cinzia Alcidi, Gilles Koleda, Ilaria Maselli, Lionel Fontagné, Maria Priscila Ramos, Matthias Busse, Paul Zagamé, Steven Blockmans, Daniel Gros |
| Time horizon: | 2030 |
| Geographic Focus: | Global |
Methods
The research method used in the report involves the use of two large economic models, MaGE and MIRAGE, to generate a quantitative central scenario. These models simulate the global economy's growth rate, GDP components, and the impact of various factors such as productivity, trade balance, and public finances. The models also consider demographic changes, education levels, and policy interventions to project the state of the global economy and the EU's transition towards 2030.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The global economy is expected to maintain a steady growth rate, with GDP doubling by 2030. Emerging economies will continue to grow faster than developed ones, leading to a reduction in cross-country income disparities. China is projected to overtake the EU and US in economic size. The middle class will grow substantially, particularly in Asia, while poverty will decrease, especially in India and sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change impacts will be limited by 2030, but significant policy intervention is required to reduce emissions. Europe's transition will be marked by demographic decline, high unemployment, and government debt, with productivity being crucial for competitiveness and growth.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: global geographic scope | 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | English publication language | china | climate change | competitiveness | demographics | developed countries | development | economy | emerging economies | emissions | europe | european economy | gdp | global economy | government debt | growth rate | income disparities | middle class | poverty | productivity | society (growth and development) | unemployment