The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060
This report presents long-term scenarios for the world economy up to the year 2060, focusing on the impact of policy reforms and the importance of maintaining an open trade regime. It examines the baseline scenario of current trends and alternative scenarios involving institutional and policy reforms in OECD and BRIICS countries. The study highlights the challenges of population aging, fiscal sustainability, and the potential benefits of structural reforms on economic outcomes. It also discusses the risks associated with rising protectionism and the importance of innovation and public investment for future growth.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development |
| Authors: | David Turner, Yvan Guillemette |
| Time horizon: | 2060 |
| Geographic focus: | Global |
| Page count: | 51 pages |
Methods
The research method involves a long-term model that projects potential output based on a production function featuring physical capital, trend employment, and labor-augmenting technological progress. The model incorporates demographic trends, policy settings, and institutional quality indicators such as governance, educational attainment, and trade openness. It uses a conditional convergence framework to estimate the impact of various factors on labor efficiency growth and potential employment.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The report uses a long-term model to project potential output and examines the effects of demographic changes, policy reforms, and trade openness on economic growth. It suggests that world GDP growth will slow down, with emerging economies like India and China playing a significant role in the global economy. The study also explores the impact of improving governance, education, and reducing trade barriers on the convergence of living standards. It emphasizes the importance of innovation, public investment, and labor market reforms in OECD countries to counteract the negative pressures of aging populations.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2060 | 2060 time horizon | 2060s time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | aging populations | economy | educational attainment | emerging economies | fiscal sustainability | gdp growth | globalisation | governance | innovation | labor market | labour market | living standards | long-term vision | policy reforms | public investment | tariff rates | trade openness | world economy | world economy in 2060 | world scenarios