Scenarios for the Russian Federation
This report explores potential scenarios for Russia's future economic development, considering the interplay of global energy trends, domestic institutional quality, and social cohesion.
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | World Economic Forum |
| Time horizon: | 2030 |
| Geographic focus: | russia |
| Page count: | 50 |
Methods
The research method involved engaging over 350 experts and decision-makers in strategic dialogues, workshops, and surveys to explore global, regional, and domestic developments affecting Russia's economy.
- Exploratory in nature
- Scenarios are developed
- With Stakeholders
- Futures Workshops
Key Insights
The report examines Russia's economic prospects amid global shifts and domestic vulnerabilities, focusing on energy reliance, institutional reforms, and social dynamics. It involves over 350 experts in a strategic dialogue to assess Russia's economic pathways and policy options, considering global energy landscapes, institutional environments, and social cohesion. The scenarios presented are not forecasts but tools to stimulate strategic thinking on Russia's economic future, exploring opportunities and challenges for policy and strategy development. The scenarios include “Regional Rebalancing,” with regional reforms and agricultural growth; “Precarious Stability,” with economic crisis and state intervention; and “Beyond Complacency,” with high energy prices leading to institutional reforms driven by elite discontent.
Drivers mentioned include:
- The Global Energy Landscape
- The Institutional Environment
- Social Cohesion
- Changing Natural Resource Distribution
- Climate Change
- Shifting Demographics and Talent Mobility
- Social Media and Equality
- Global Flows of Capital
- Investor perceptions of risk
- Adequacy of physical infrastructure
- Level of market competition
- Efficiency of bureaucratic apparatus
- Financial architecture
- Quality of corporate governance
- Transparency of legal frameworks
- Leadership of regional actors
- Elite cohesion
- Human capital
- Level of popular discontent
- Rent seeking
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | Russia geographic scope | economic development | economics | energy exports | expert engagement | geopolitics | global energy | institutional environment | institutional reforms | policy options | regional dynamics | russia | social cohesion | strategic dialogue