Conflict Going Unconventional

More lower-level conflict perhaps captures less notice than big high-profile conflict – the current Russia-Ukraine conflict being a case in point. Yet that lower-level conflict is increasing, and the reports captured it. Conflict is perhaps more of an outcome of other drivers in the sense that failures or shortcomings in governance, social relations, economics, resources, and the environment create conditions conducive to conflict. The inclusion of cybersecurity is important as well, as it too reflects the growing importance of technology in general, and I/T and virtual applications in particular.

Future of Government in 2030 by eRepublic Magazine. The biggest trends right now are disinformation and bad actors — people who want to harm others and interfere with other countries’ infrastructure and elections. All these problems that are caused by a global and open Internet are going to shape the Internet over the next decade, as countries try to respond. Some will be responding because they want to protect their citizens, and some will be responding because they want to protect their regimes.

Future of Government in 2030 by eRepublic Magazine. Our voting system is incredibly ripe for disruption. If governments moved their records to a blockchain, we could dramatically improve the voting process by ensuring that every vote is counted while simultaneously cutting down on voter fraud. It could also make voting much easier, removing the need for people to manually queue up at a polling station. If we can shop online, why shouldn’t we be able to vote online, too? Especially if we’re able to use blockchain to make digital voting fairer and more tamper-proof than the existing system.

Non-ferrous Metals Manufacturing: Vision for 2050 and Actions Needed by the European Commission Joint Research Centre. Political, economic, and financial instabilities in countries where raw materials are produced, as well as natural disasters, make costs of resources fluctuate.

African Futures 2035: Key Trends by the Journal of Futures Studies. Conflict is down from the 90s, but the demographics and types of violent conflicts are changing. “Increasingly political and communal militias and unidentified armed groups dominate.”

Driving Forces Cards 2035 by the Singapore Government Centre for Strategic Futures. Information is more valuable than ever, harder for governments to control and will reshape state-market-society relations.

GAO 2018-2023 Strategic Plan: Trends Affecting Government and Society by US Government Accountability Office. Cyber threats are challenging public trust in institutions and governance. Home-grown violent extremists remainan unpredictable terror threat. Social media is allowing extremists to find each other and meet—and gives them a platform for violent ideas. Major powers (e.g., Russia, China, and the United States) increasingly have competing interests. North Korea and Iran threaten regional and global order. Cyberattacks may be used against the United States and its allies to counter military advantages. The global threat from terrorism, including the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), will remain geographically diverse and multifaceted.

Geostrategic Cluster Findings – The Future of Asia: Implications for Canada by Policy orizons Canada. Non-traditional security threats are becoming increasingly complex and combining in new ways that could overwhelm the ability of some Asian governments to deal with them, potentially compromising regional stability.

Future of Government in 2030 by eRepublic Magazine. If we don’t increase international and U.S. internal collaboration to make cybercrime less lucrative, our states and cities will be decimated by the costs. The digital threats will continue to grow, so we can’t let our guard down.

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