Governance Under Pressure

Escalating geopolitical instability amidst the formation of a multipolar world, coupled with the potential absence of a discernible global leader, instills heightened apprehension. Nations grapple with hesitancy to align with any one power, opting instead for a cautious stance and the pursuit of greater autonomy. Consequently, this paradigm shift contributes to the emergence of a multipolar world order, contrasting the previously established bipolar framework.

Simultaneously, countries face a multitude of internal challenges, marked by political fragmentation, eroding legitimacy, surging nationalism, and prevailing public mistrust. The encroachment of subnational governing bodies, private organizations, and non-state actors on the authority and powers once exclusive to national governments adds to the complexity of these transformations. Amidst these intricate dynamics, the prevailing discourse underscores the mounting pressure on governance structures to adapt and align with the complexities of an ever-evolving world.

Within this context, a distinct sentiment of disappointment emerges, reflecting a perceived sense of missed opportunities or regression. Governance, in particular, struggles to keep pace with the rapid advancements witnessed in various realms, notably technology. Rather than embracing progress, governance is perceived as trapped in outdated practices and approaches, entangled in inertia or stagnation, hindering meaningful advancements.

Sustainable Health Systems - Visions, Strategies, Critical Uncertainties and Scenarios by World Economic Forum in collaboration with McKinsey interviewed over 200 leaders in healthcare to provide a systemic analysis of the healthcare industry and answer the question: what could health systems look like in 2040? Some of the political/legal Drivers of Change identified are:

• Influence over lifestyles - “Ability and willingness of the state and organizational bodies to directly influence the lives of the population.”
• Origin of governance - “At which level will policy for the society be set? Supranational, national, or local?”

Chaos or Connection? The Global Media and Information Landscape in 2035 by Global Governance Futures provides insights into the future trends and challenges in the global media and information landscape. It explores the evolving dynamics of media consumption, digital technologies, and the role of information in society, highlighting the need for adaptation and innovation in this rapidly changing environment. One of the key uncertainties considered for the scenarios is how nationalism and populism will develop.

Future of Government in 2030 by e.Republic is a series of short essays compiling the thoughts of over two dozen futurists. Several of which consider various aspects of our governing system.

GAO 2018-2023 Strategic Plan: Trends Affecting Government and Society by US Government Accountability Office is a study on the challenges faced by the federal government in managing and overseeing cybersecurity risks.

Challenge Network scenarios since 1996 by The Challenge Network

Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want (popular version) by African Union outlines 7 aspirations for the continent in 2063. One of which is “an integrated continent politically united based on the ideals of Pan Africanism and the vision of Africa's Renaissance.”

Scenarios for the Russian Federation by the World Economic Forum analyzes four different scenarios for the future of Russia, based on varying levels of economic, political, and social development. These scenarios range from a “Global Reset” that sees a complete overhaul of the world economy, to a “Low Momentum” scenario where Russia stagnates in its current state. Some of the domestic drivers highlighted are:

• Efficiency of bureaucratic apparatus
• Transparency of legal frameworks
• Leadership of regional actors
• Level of popular discontent
• Elite cohesion

Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments by KPMG International and the Mowat Centre examines global megatrends likely to impact the public and private sectors through 2030, and delves into the megatrends' implications for governments.

Make or Break: How Will Cities Shape Future Global Challenges? by Global Governance Futures (GGF) 2030 Fellows uses scenarios to explore 3 key questions about the future of cities in 2030:

1. Will we see cities instead of national governments carry out sustainable development initiatives?
2. What role will cities play in the future of global governance?
3. What will cities, mayors and civil society groups need in order to jointly advocate for and lead policy changes?

The biggest factors contributing to cities' role in global governance are: relationship between cities and their nation states, degree of privitatization within cities, provision of security in cities, degree of city-to-city cooperation, degree of virtual citizenship, and degree of backlash against globalization.

The Future of Asia: Forces of Change and Potential Surprises and Supplementary Report by Policy Horizons Canada examines the potential future trends and challenges that Canada may face in the next 10-15 years. It explores various topics including technological advancements, climate change, demographic shifts, and geopolitical dynamics. One of the 'forces of change' evaluated is governance.

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development by Rockefeller Foundation explores four scenarios: Lock Step, Clever Together, Hack Attack, and Smart Scramble, each depicting different trajectories of technological development and their socio-economic impacts, and their implications for technology and global development. The scenarios are built from two critical uncertainties: adaptive capacity and political and economic alignment.

Global Foresight 2022 by Atlantic Council examines three scenarios and their implications on global trends and challenges.

• Cold War II, with a twist
• A World Transformed by Climate Shocks
• A Democratic Resistance

The scenarios are shaped by 10 trends, one of which is 'The deepening of domestic disorders' which looks at growing inequality within and between countries and how the rise of the internet and social media has both empowered citizens and posed threats to democracy.

Thinking MENA Futures: The Next Five Years and Beyond by the Middle East Institute is a series of essays looking at the next 5 years (2021-2026) for the Middle East and North Africa. One of which, “The Primacy of the G Word: Governance, not only growth”, looks at strength of governance.

AFRICAN FUTURES 2050: THE NEXT FORTY YEARS by Foresight for Development is a platform dedicated to exploring the future of Africa and envisioning potential scenarios for the continent's development over the next four decades. Split into sections of key elements of development, the sociopolitical elements look at things like democratization and 'the rule of law and corruption'.

African Digital Futures by NGFP African Digital Futures provides a platform for exploring and discussing the future of Africa, with a particular focus on the continent's economic, social, and technological development. It offers various resources, including articles, reports, and interactive tools, to engage in conversations and envision potential scenarios for the future of Africa. One of the stories looks at the relationship between data and good governance.

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