Resource insecurities

Resource insecurity is a pressing global concern that encompasses the delicate balance between sustainability, economic growth, and meeting present and future needs. The challenges associated with resource insecurity are compounded by factors such as migration and urbanization. Rapid influxes of people into under-equipped areas increase localized resource security concerns, while urbanization and inadequate infrastructure further amplify these problems. Additionally, regional variations in consumption patterns and demands contribute to location-specific resource concerns. Emerging economies, for example, are experiencing a rapid increase in energy and electricity demand as their middle-class expands and digital connectivity becomes more widespread. While this growth signifies progress in these regions, it also escalates consumption pressures and places additional strain on resources. It is worth noting that consumption and production growth patterns driving scarcity are not exclusive to emerging economies, as these trends can be observed universally. Limited access to resources can impede economic growth and development, highlighting the global implications of resource inequality.

The complex interdependencies and stresses surrounding resources transcend organizational boundaries, missions, and even national governments. As a result, sustainable resource management has become a central focus for many governments and businesses. However, questions remain regarding the most effective and efficient governance approaches at both global and local levels. The pressures imposed by resource insecurity also have a direct impact on the ability of governments and organizations to fulfill their goals and core policies.

While technology often emerges as a primary solution, it is important to acknowledge that every new product, process, or standard introduces its own set of challenges, including increased waste generation through production and equipment replacement. This realization underscores the need for holistic and comprehensive strategies to address resource insecurity. To effectively mitigate resource insecurity, it is crucial to explore a range of potential solutions. Coordinated efforts, including regulatory control and legislative measures, can help curb poor, mis-, and unregulated behaviors that contribute to resource insecurities. Reducing the fragmentation of laws and enhancing coordination among stakeholders can lead to improvements in certain aspects of the problem. Circular business, production, and consumption models are commonly cited as positive pathways forward, offering opportunities to minimize waste and maximize resource utilization.

Sustainable Health Systems - Visions, Strategies, Critical Uncertainties and Scenarios by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with McKinsey & Company interviewed over 200 leaders in healthcare to provide a systemic analysis of the healthcare industry and answer the question: what could health systems look like in 2040? One of the Drivers of Change identified is 'resource availability'.

Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry by World Economic Forum presents three potential future scenarios and their implications for industries: 1.) Building in a virtual world; 2.) Factories run the world; 3.) A green reboot. These scenarios explore different paths of technological advancement, social changes, and environmental challenges. One megatrend identified to influence the scenarios is 'resource scarcity'.

A World Reaching Inflection Pointby Centre for Strategic Futures provides an overview of the DF2040 themes, outlining key areas of focus for Singapore's future development. It emphasizes sustainability, innovation, and resilience, aiming to create a vibrant and inclusive city-state that leverages technology, enhances livability, and adapts to global challenges. The themes encompass various sectors such as urban planning, transportation, environment, and economic growth, shaping the vision for Singapore's development up to the year 2040. One of these themes is “physical constraints are inescapable.”

The World in 2040: The future of healthcare, mobility, travel and the home by Allianz Partners provides an overview of the megatrends shaping the 21st century. It highlights key factors such as demographic changes, technological advancements, climate change, and shifting economic power. The report explores the implications of these megatrends, one of which is 'asymmetric global population explosion' which looks at the unequal negative relationship of population growth in relation to available resources.

Driving Forces 2035 Cards by Singapore Government Centre for Strategic Futures provides a series of concise and informative cards that highlight key concepts and insights. These cards cover various topics such as strategic foresight, emerging technologies, global trends, and security challenges. One such card looks at the 'evolution of the water-energy-food-land nexus'.

GAO 2018-2023 Strategic Plan: Trends Affecting Government and Society by US Government Accountability Office is a study on the challenges faced by the federal government in managing and overseeing cybersecurity risks. A section of the report looks at “balancing natural resource development and sustainability in an increasingly stressed and interdependent environment”.

Geostrategic Cluster Findings - The Future of Asia: Implications for Canada by Policy Horizons Canada explores the potential future challenges and opportunities for Canada in the next 50 years. It discusses key trends such as shifting demographics, technological advancements, and environmental changes that will shape the country's social, economic, and political landscape. One of these key insights is “water scarcity leading to tensions and trade-offs”.

Scenarios for the Russian Federation by World Economic Forum analyzes four different scenarios for the future of Russia, based on varying levels of economic, political, and social development. These scenarios range from a “Global Reset” that sees a complete overhaul of the world economy, to a “Low Momentum” scenario where Russia stagnates in its current state. One of the key uncertainties identified is “the global energy landscape” which looks at oil and gas and whether they will face scarcity or abundance and what that means for Russia.

2022 Strategic Foresight Report by the European Commission explores the interplay between the green and digital transitions in the context of evolving geopolitics. The report emphasizes the need to understand the interactions between these transitions to maximize synergies and minimize tensions. It outlines four key targets: achieving digital skills for all, ensuring secure and sustainable digital infrastructure, promoting digitalization of businesses, and enhancing digital public services. Of the 10 areas for action, one is “synergies and tensions between the green and digital transitions” looks at how digital technologies have the potential to contribute significantly to climate neutrality, resource efficiency, and circular economy goals. However, challenges such as increasing energy consumption, electronic waste, water usage, ethical concerns related to raw material mining, and vulnerability to climate and environmental risks need to be addressed to ensure the sustainable development of the digital sector and its alignment with the green transition.

Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments by KPMG International and the Mowat Centre examines global megatrends likely to impact the public and private sectors through 2030, and delves into the megatrends' implications for governments, one of which is resource stress.

Ethiopia - Regional Cities by ARUP and Cities Alliance explores the combined power of rapid urbanization and a youthful population to help African cities achieve inclusive economic growth. They look at 5 key themes: citizenship, economy, governance, services, and environment. Environmental risks are broken down into three dimensions: climatic risk, geophysical risk, and biological and natural resource risk.

Exploring europe's capability requirements for 2035 and beyond by RAND for the European Defense Agency aims to address defense and military challenges in Europe over the long-term. It highlights environmental factors that could contribute to unrest and conflict, such as:

• Stresses on resources, such as food, water, and energy
• Competition for agricultural land and raw materials

Climate and Green Growth Strategic Framework- Projecting Africa's Voice- Strategy- 2021-2030 by African Development Bank outlines the Climate and Green Growth Strategic Framework for Africa, which aims to project Africa's voice and strategy in addressing climate change and promoting green growth from 2021 to 2030. It highlights the importance of integrating climate change considerations into development planning and emphasizes the need for sustainable and inclusive growth in the region. The impacts of climate change are repeatedly tied to the existing stress on water availability.

A Circular Water Future: White Paper on Water Reuse by by ARUP discusses the concept of a circular water future and presents strategies for achieving sustainable water management. It emphasizes the importance of circular economy principles, such as water reuse, recycling, and resource recovery, to address water scarcity and pollution challenges.

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