Social Media and Fragmentation

Fragmentation increases social and individual vulnerability to manipulation, propaganda, mis- and dis-information. Social media’s ability to rapidly amplify information is a tool that can, and has been, wielded to produced positive and harmful results. Socially conscious consumers and rising consumer activism have harnessed the power of social media to leverage change. Social media is being used to hold politicians, government officials, business leaders, and organizations accountable to a degree largely unseen before. Social, political, and economic thoughts that previously were expressed behind closed doors, are increasingly aired publicly. Illegal, morally, and ethically ambiguous behaviors are more easily and quickly exposed increasing everyone’s vulnerability to reputation risks. The speed and impact of these risks are causing organizations to rethink risk management and what it means to proactively handle risks.

Risk management isn’t the only regulatory framework under potential restructuring due to social media. Questions surrounding data, free speech, regulation and management of online platforms, the battle between nationalist and populist views, and cybersecurity are relevant across the world. Where do responsibilities fall when it comes to data security, creating safe online environments, or appropriate levels of regulation of citizens online actions?

As governments and organizations try to find the right balance, they are in a race against the building pressures of confident, empowered people, like socially conscious consumers, harnessing the power of social media to use their voice and leverage change, through things like the rising consumer activist movement. As individuals feel empowered, and have increased access to platforms, trust in established organizations and governments are declining, mis- and dis-information is increasing, polarization across political, social, religious, race, gender, and more divisions are likely to increase as well. These issues coupled with loss of shared trust is the loss of shared realities and stabilization create vulnerabilities.

Shared reality aids our ability to sense-make and act collectively. If our capacity to understand the norms and realities of other groups, fragmentation across these silos occurs and is amplified with each new ‘sense-making’ silo that emerges without the ability to comprehend counter-narratives. While the loss of shared narratives or the emergence of counter-narratives can foster disruption, they also create opportunities to rebuild shared identities and narratives in constructive/positive/better ways. Increasing a sense of connection and strengthening belonging in communities will likely be one of the most powerful ways to combat rising polarization and fragmentation of society. If there aren’t adequate solutions implemented, collective anxiety will continue to rise and people will find the comfort of certainty amongst ideologies and theories that can be problematic. Some of this fragmentation and instability results from increasing pressures on social welfare systems, healthcare, urbanization, population declining, and more. When other aspects of the system are strained, and instability rises, vulnerability to unrest increases.

Chaos or Connection? The Global Media and Information Landscape in 2035 by Global Governance Futuresanalyzes the future of media and information landscape until 2035. It explores how emerging technologies like AI, virtual reality, and blockchain will impact media consumption and distribution, leading to a fragmented media landscape. The article stresses the importance of adapting regulatory frameworks and promoting digital literacy to effectively navigate this fragmentation and ensure a balanced and informed media environment.

The Future of Immigration: Four Paths by Institute for the Future provides an analysis of potential trends and scenarios surrounding immigration. It explores factors such as globalization, technology, and policy changes that may shape the future of immigration. The document presents four different scenarios, highlighting the complex and evolving nature of immigration and its potential impact on societies, economies, and individuals in the coming years. One of the 5 supplementary drivers that defines the scenarios is “Media & Culture,” highlighting the fragmentation of the 20th-century media landscape and the emergence of new forms of digital propaganda and manipulation through AI-generated personas, news bots, and deep fakes, which undermine institutional legitimacy and will continue evolving with the rise of user-generated AI.

The Future of Risk: New Game, New Rules by Deloitte explores the evolving landscape of risk management. It explores 10 drivers and discusses how advancements in technology, globalization, and changing business models are reshaping the risk landscape for organizations. One of those 10 drivers is “Reputation risks accelerate and amplify” which looks at the interconnected world where mobile devices, social media, and evolving societal expectations.

The Future of Sense-making by Policy Horizons Canada examines the changing landscape of sense-making in an increasingly complex and information-rich world. It discusses the impact of emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and blockchain, on the way individuals and organizations make sense of information. The document emphasizes the need for adaptive sense-making strategies, collaboration across disciplines, and ethical considerations to effectively navigate the challenges and opportunities of the future.

Challenge Network Scenarios since 1996 by The Challenge Network

Scenarios for the Russian Federation by World Economic Forum analyzes four different scenarios for the future of Russia, based on varying levels of economic, political, and social development. These scenarios range from a “Global Reset” that sees a complete overhaul of the world economy, to a “Low Momentum” scenario where Russia stagnates in its current state. One of the influential global forces shaping these scenarios is “social media and vulnerability of elites”. Growing vulnerability undermines global elites as new media technologies empower people to expose corruption and demand accountability, including in Russia where elite reactions are critical.

The OECD Scenarios for the Future of Schooling by OECD is a chapter of four scenarios for 2040:

• Schooling extended
• Education outsourced
• Schools as learning hubs
• Learn-as-you-go

Schools as learning hubs considered increasing polarization and fragmentation as one of the signals from the present influencing the scenario.

A summary of potential cross-cutting missions to address future societal challenges in Norway by RAND is a study commissioned by the Research Council of Norway. The study focuses on strategic areas such as oceans, green transition, health and welfare, cohesion and globalization, and technology and digitalization, aiming to identify priority missions and structural measures to address societal challenges in Norway. The study's participatory approach includes various methodologies such as trend analysis, stakeholder interviews, scenario analysis, and workshops, providing valuable insights for funders, policymakers, innovators, and anyone interested in research and innovation. For scenarios they considered topics under economy and society such as: “discrimination and hate speech” and “use of social media to spread disinformation”.

Exploring Europe's Capability Requirements for 2035 and Beyond by RAND

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development by Rockefeller Foundation

The 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040) by Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning

Central America: 2030 trends by Global Americans