Population Growth Slowing

Across most of the world populations are aging. The slowing of population growth is a massively significant driver that ends a long boom. Just a generation ago, there was much concern and hand-wringing about how overpopulation would overwhelm carrying capacity. This concern was well-placed in that it has come true to a degree, but population growth has been managed more successfully than most thought possible. The people or demographic story now shifts from quantity to quality. A consequence of the slower growth is that the population profile is aging, which puts some pressure on the economic and healthcare systems so it’s not just the fact that we have aging populations, but how those populations are aging. Healthcare innovations intensify the effects of our aging populations, they’re living longer and generally experiencing a greater quality of life. Aging populations participate in the economy in different ways; as life expectancy has increased, so too has the number of years people spend in retirement. Extending retirement years means how we think about saving and our tax bases need to change. With limited incomes and increasingly vulnerable pension and social security systems, aging populations will be more in-tuned with how taxes impact their finances, and we could see increased migration patterns in relation to tax-burdened cities. Where these populations ultimately reside will impact social systems, the build environment, transport, mobility, consumption, and more. Communities, governments, and industries need to prepare to adapt infrastructure and business practices to meet the changing needs. Adjusting to the changing needs of an aging society will require resources that may be in competition with the resources needed to ensure a capable workforce, so striking a balance between the needs of these groups will be a challenge.

The changing opportunity landscapes associated with aging populations can also drive migration across the younger cohorts as they seek economic and social opportunities away from home. If we’re unable to adequately support their education, development, and employment we increase the vulnerabilities of our societies and increase the potential for tension and unrest.

Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry by World Economic Forum

The Future of Immigration: Four Paths by Institute for the Future provides an analysis of potential trends and scenarios surrounding immigration. It explores factors such as globalization, technology, and policy changes that may shape the future of immigration. The document presents four different scenarios, highlighting the complex and evolving nature of immigration and its potential impact on societies, economies, and individuals in the coming years.

Emerging economies: demographic change by UK Government Office for Science

Driving Forces 2035 Cards Driving Forces Cards 2035 by Singapore Government Centre for Strategic Futures

Future of Government in 2030 by e.Republic

GAO 2018-2023 Strategic Plan: Trends Affecting Government and Society by US Government Accountability Office

Future of Highways by ARUP

Review of how science and technology could contribute to better energy management in the future: futures studies by UK Government Office for Science

Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments by

Exploring europe's capability requirements for 2035 and beyond by RAND

Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region's Potential by Centennial Group International